Analysts on Nintendo Switch 2 Pre-order Chaos: 'Unhinged Times' Due to Tariffs

It's been a tumultuous week for U.S. gamers, marked by a rollercoaster of emotions. The week kicked off with the much-anticipated full reveal of the Nintendo Switch 2, showcasing its impressive features and game lineup. However, excitement quickly turned to concern when the price was announced: a hefty $450 for the console and $80 for Mario Kart Tour. The rollercoaster took another sharp turn this morning when Nintendo announced a delay in pre-orders, citing the need to assess the impact of the sudden, sweeping tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on numerous countries worldwide.

We've delved into the reasons behind the Nintendo Switch 2's high cost and the potential impact of these tariffs on the gaming industry elsewhere. But the burning question on everyone's mind right now is: what will Nintendo do next? Will the Nintendo Switch 2's price increase when pre-orders finally open?

Typically, when faced with such uncertainties about the future of video games, I consult a panel of expert industry analysts. Although they can't predict the future with certainty, they usually provide a well-researched consensus on what's most likely to happen. I've already shared their insights twice this week. However, this time, something unprecedented occurred: every analyst I spoke with was stumped. They offered various guesses about whether Nintendo would raise prices or not, but each response was heavily caveated due to the current chaos and unpredictability. This situation is truly unique and rapidly evolving, making it impossible to accurately forecast Nintendo's, Trump's, or anyone else's next move.

With that significant disclaimer in mind, here's what the analysts did say:

Sky-High Switch

Amidst their wild guesses, my panel was divided. Dr. Serkan Toto, CEO of Kantan Games, believes that Nintendo will raise prices. Initially skeptical due to the already announced pricing, the delay changed his perspective. He predicts that Nintendo will run simulations and announce price hikes for the system, games, and accessories. "I hope I am wrong, but if sustained, these sky-high tariffs leave them no choice," he stated. "Would you be surprised now to see Switch 2 hit US$500 for the base model? I wouldn't."

Dr. Toto also questioned Nintendo's timing, wondering why they didn't wait for the U.S. to resolve the tariffs before setting the pricing. "This made no sense," he added.

Mat Piscatella, a senior analyst at Circana, echoed the sentiment of unpredictability but leaned towards an increase in game prices, including those from Nintendo. He noted that the tariffs' breadth and depth caught everyone off guard. Piscatella explained that Nintendo likely anticipated certain tariffs when setting the initial price, but the actual tariffs were much higher than expected. "Every reasonable and responsible business that relies on international supply chains will be reevaluating its US consumer pricing at this point. They have to," he said.

He also pointed out that the U.S. could join other regions in facing higher video game prices due to these tariffs. "The haphazard and chaotic nature of the tariffs and their announcement obviously has many scrambling to navigate the fallout," Piscatella added.

Manu Rosier, director of market analysis at Newzoo, predicts that hardware prices will rise due to tariffs, though he believes software might be less affected. "While physical versions might be subject to tariffs, the growing dominance and lower cost of digital distribution would likely limit any broader effect," he said. However, he noted that if a significant tariff like 20% were introduced, companies like Nintendo would likely pass the cost onto consumers rather than absorbing it themselves.

Holding the Line

On the other side, Joost van Dreunen, an NYU Stern professor and author of SuperJoost Playlist, acknowledges the possibility of a price increase but believes Nintendo will try hard to avoid it. He suggests that the volatility from the Trump tariffs was already factored into the Switch 2's $449.99 pricing. "Given the first Trump administration's impact, Nintendo, like other manufacturers, has since restructured its supply chain to mitigate such geopolitical risks," he explained. He also noted that Nintendo historically aims for a launch price around $400, adjusted for inflation, suggesting the current price reflects anticipated economic challenges.

However, van Dreunen admits that the unpredictable nature of these tariff decisions adds significant uncertainty to the market. "This could compel Nintendo to find ways to absorb or offset additional costs, especially when initial product margins are typically narrower," he said. He expects Nintendo to maintain the $449.99 price point but warns that further deterioration in the trade landscape might force a reassessment.

Piers Harding-Rolls, a games researcher at Ampere Analysis, agrees that Nintendo is in a tough spot, having already announced the launch price. He suggests that the company will delay any price adjustments until at least 2026, hoping for a resolution to the tariff issue. "This delay in pre-orders is to give the company more time and it will be hoping some sort of solution will be found over the next few weeks," he said. Harding-Rolls believes that changing the price now could impact the brand and consumer perception, especially during the crucial first holiday season.

Living in Unhinged Times

Rhys Elliott, a games analyst at Alinea Analytics, predicts higher prices for both Nintendo hardware and software due to the tariffs. He referenced his earlier comments on Nintendo's strategy of offering cheaper digital editions in certain markets to encourage digital purchases. "It seems the lower prices in other markets were to nudge Switch 2 buyers to digital... Nintendo might have wanted to do something similar in the US, but the tariff situation is so chaotic that Nintendo was in 'wait and see' mode," he explained.

Elliott painted a grim picture of the broader impact of the tariffs on the gaming industry, aligning with warnings from the Entertainment Software Association. He emphasized that tariffs would result in a "weaker, poorer nation," with consumers ultimately bearing the cost. "Some manufacturers – Nintendo included – have been shifting their manufacturing to non-tariff-impacted markets," he said. However, he pointed out the logistical impossibility of moving entire supply chains to the U.S. under current conditions. "We are living in... there's no other word for it... unhinged times driven by an unhinged man (and other forces)," Elliott concluded.

He criticized the tariffs as detrimental to U.S. consumers and the gaming industry, arguing that they contradict core economic principles of international trade. "Policies that lead to higher prices for everyday people amid a cost-of-living crisis are deplorable. They're bad for gamers and the games business," he stated.

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