With Nintendo Switch 2 Waiting in the Wings, Sales of the Original Switch and Its Games Continue to Tumble

Nintendo's hardware sales forecast has been revised downward again, with Switch console and game sales falling "below expectations." For the first nine months of the fiscal year, dedicated game console sales dropped 31.7% year-over-year to 895.5 billion yen (approximately $5.7 billion) due to decreased sales of both the Switch and its software. Mobile and IP-related revenue also declined by 33.9% year-over-year to 49.7 billion yen (approximately $320 million), primarily impacted by the comparison to 2023's highly successful The Super Mario Bros. Movie. Consequently, gross profit decreased by 27.3% year-over-year to 565.5 billion yen (approximately $3.6 billion).

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Nintendo has again lowered its financial forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2025, for the second consecutive time. The company anticipates selling even fewer Switch units than previously projected, reducing its forecast by 1.5 million to 11 million units, and software sales by 10 million to 150 million units.

While sales declines were expected for the eight-year-old Switch, the drop is steeper than Nintendo initially anticipated. Nevertheless, the Switch has surpassed 150 million units sold, a remarkable achievement. While overtaking the PlayStation 2's 160 million sales to become the best-selling console of all time may be unlikely, surpassing the Nintendo DS's 154 million sales remains a possibility.

Nintendo characterized Switch and software sales in Q3 2024 (ending December 31, 2024) as "stable considering the platform's age." Overall Switch family sales were down 30.6% year-over-year at 9.54 million units, and software sales decreased by 24.4% year-over-year to 123.98 million units. However, Nintendo highlighted strong sales of new titles: The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom (3.91 million), Super Mario Party Jamboree (6.17 million), Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (5.38 million), and Nintendo Switch Sports (2.63 million) during the quarter. Mario & Luigi: Brothership reached 1.4 million units sold.

Super Mario Party Jamboree stands out as a significant success. Within its first 11 weeks (released October 17, 2024), it outperformed previous Mario Party titles on the Switch.

Crucially, for Nintendo's upcoming Switch 2 launch, active users remain high, with 129 million annual playing users in 2024. This indicates continued engagement despite the console's age.

Nintendo acknowledged the year-on-year decline in Switch unit sales but emphasized continued consumer interest, with some weeks during the holiday season exceeding sales from the previous year.

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Given the financial report, investors will eagerly anticipate the Switch 2's release. Nintendo mentioned upcoming original Switch titles: Xenoblade Chronicles X: Definitive Edition (March 20 release), and Pokémon Legends: Z-A and Metroid Prime 4: Beyond (scheduled for 2025).

The Switch 2 was also mentioned, with Nintendo reiterating its planned 2025 release and referencing the January 16th hardware reveal video. A Switch 2 Direct is planned for April 2nd, along with global hands-on events.